Prediction evidence
neutralPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 17 Jul 2026, 15:03 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
In reply to · 17 Jul 2026, 13:41 UTC · context given to the AI
As expected, the stock market opened deep red. Crypto has to bounce, especially $ETH. Weak performance yet again. Every fucking time.@TedPillows It will bounce back up, there's just a little lag in there.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,829 at 17 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,842 at 18 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC.
r = 1842.49 / 1829.44 − 1 = +0.71%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = +0.71%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → neutral
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “It will bounce back up, there's just a little lag in there.”
- Confidence
- 85%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- neutral
- Baseline price
- $1,829
- Evaluation price
- $1,842
- Move
- +0.71%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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