Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 17 Jul 2026, 08:06 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
Big day today, as volatility on all markets are picking up. Japanese stock markets have seen a harsh drop. It's very likely that we're going to see the same on the Nasdaq and #Bitcoin today.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $62,826 at 17 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $63,960 at 18 Jul 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 63960 / 62826.01 − 1 = +1.80%- Direction d = −1 (bearish), so
d × r = -1.80%against a neutral band of ±1.00% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Bitcoin (BTC)
- Direction
- ▼ Bearish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (stated in post)
- Evidence span
- “It's very likely that we're going to see the same on the Nasdaq and #Bitcoin today.”
- Confidence
- 85%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $62,826
- Evaluation price
- $63,960
- Move
- +1.80%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.00%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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