Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 16 Jul 2026, 14:07 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
In reply to · 16 Jul 2026, 12:08 UTC · context given to the AI
$BTC.D is forming a bearish pennant 📉 It might take a few more weeks to break out but I think we head towards 55% in the next ~6 weeks. That would align with the setups of $ETHBTC and altcoins all across the board. https://t.co/eNQ1r0pz38@QuintenFrancois It’s about time for the breakout, $ETH leading the way.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $1,882 at 16 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $1,821 at 17 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 1820.53 / 1881.68 − 1 = -3.25%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.25%against a neutral band of ±1.25% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Ethereum (ETH)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “It’s about time for the breakout, $ETH leading the way.”
- Confidence
- 80%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $1,882
- Evaluation price
- $1,821
- Move
- -3.25%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.25%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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