Prediction evidence
incorrectPolicy v1.0Source post
Published 16 Jul 2026, 06:15 UTC · fetched 13 Oct 2026, 05:55 UTC
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNL
In reply to · 16 Jul 2026, 04:11 UTC · context given to the AI
Tokenized equities volume onchain is exploding. Solana dominated last week, now BNB this week. https://t.co/2IrrCzqKu9@andyyy Bullish on $ONDO, $PLUME and $SOL.View original on X ↗
How this was scored
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
- Baseline: first SOL price at or after publication, $77.27 at 16 Jul 2026, 07:00 UTC.
- Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $74.52 at 17 Jul 2026, 07:00 UTC.
r = 74.52 / 77.27 − 1 = -3.56%- Direction d = +1 (bullish), so
d × r = -3.56%against a neutral band of ±1.50% → incorrect
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
AI interpretation
Uses only text available at publication time
- Asset
- Solana (SOL)
- Direction
- ▲ Bullish
- Intent
- explicit
- Horizon
- 24 hours (default, none stated)
- Evidence span
- “Bullish on $ONDO, $PLUME and $SOL.”
- Confidence
- 95%
- Review state
- auto accepted
- Model / prompt
- gemini-3.8-flash · prompt-v1
Outcome record
- Status
- incorrect
- Baseline price
- $77.27
- Evaluation price
- $74.52
- Move
- -3.56%
- Neutral threshold
- ±1.50%
- Price provider
- coinbase
- Evaluated at
- 13 Oct 2026, 06:11 UTC
- Policy version
- v1.0
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